ICU mortality across pre-pandemic and pandemic cohorts in a resource-limited setting: A critical care resiliency analysis from South Africa

Background Hospital adaptation and resiliency, required during public health emergencies to optimize outcomes, are understudied especially in resource-limited settings. Research Question Measure pre-pandemic and pandemic critical illness outcomes in a resource-limited setting and in the context of capacity strain. Study Design and Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study among patients admitted to ICUs at two public hospitals in the KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health in South Africa preceding and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2022). We used multivariable logistic regression to analyze the association between three patient cohorts (pre-pandemic non-COVID-19, pandemic non-COVID-19, and pandemic COVID-19) and ICU capacity strain and the primary outcome of ICU mortality. Results 3,221 patients were admitted to the ICU during the pre-pandemic period and 2,539 patients were admitted to the ICU during the pandemic period (375 [14.8%] with COVID-19 and 2,164 [85.2%] without COVID-19). The pre-pandemic and pandemic non-COVID-19 cohorts were similar. Compared to the non-COVID-19 cohorts, the pandemic COVID-19 cohort had older age, higher rates of chronic cardiovascular disease and diabetes, less extra-pulmonary organ dysfunction, and longer ICU length of stay. Compared to the pre-pandemic non-COVID-19 cohort, the pandemic non-COVID-19 cohort had similar odds of ICU mortality (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.90-1.25, p = 0.50) while the pandemic COVID-19 cohort had significantly increased odds of ICU mortality (OR 3.91, 95% CI 3.03-5.05 p < 0.0005). ICU occupancy was not associated with ICU mortality in either the COVID-19 cohort (OR 1.05 per 10% change in ICU occupancy, 95% CI 0.96-1.14, p = 0.27) or the pooled non-COVID-19 cohort (OR 1.01 per 10% change in ICU occupancy, 95% CI 0.98-1.03, p = 0.52). Interpretation Pre-pandemic and pandemic non-COVID-19 ICU patients were broadly similar in clinical characteristics and outcomes, suggesting critical care resiliency, while pandemic COVID-19 ICU patients had important clinical differences and had significantly higher mortality.

Angiopoietin-Like4 Is a Novel Marker of COVID-19 Severity.

Vascular dysfunction and capillary leak are common in critically ill COVID-19 patients, but identification of endothelial pathways involved in COVID-19 pathogenesis has been limited. Angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) is a protein secreted in response to hypoxic and nutrient-poor conditions that has a variety of biological effects including vascular injury and capillary leak. OBJECTIVES: To assess the role of ANGPTL4 in COVID-19-related outcomes. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Two hundred twenty-five COVID-19 ICU patients were enrolled from April 2020 to May 2021 in a prospective, multicenter cohort study from three different medical centers, University of Washington, University of Southern California and New York University. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Plasma ANGPTL4 was measured on days 1, 7, and 14 after ICU admission. We used previously published tissue proteomic data and lung single nucleus RNA (snRNA) sequencing data from specimens collected from COVID-19 patients to determine the tissues and cells that produce ANGPTL4. RESULTS: Higher plasma ANGPTL4 concentrations were significantly associated with worse hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio per log2 increase, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.17-2.00; p = 0.002). Higher ANGPTL4 concentrations were also associated with higher proportions of venous thromboembolism and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Longitudinal ANGPTL4 concentrations were significantly different during the first 2 weeks of hospitalization in patients who subsequently died compared with survivors (p for interaction = 8.1 × 10-5). Proteomics analysis demonstrated abundance of ANGPTL4 in lung tissue compared with other organs in COVID-19. ANGPTL4 single-nuclear RNA gene expression was significantly increased in pulmonary alveolar type 2 epithelial cells and fibroblasts in COVID-19 lung tissue compared with controls. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: ANGPTL4 is expressed in pulmonary epithelial cells and fibroblasts and is associated with clinical prognosis in critically ill COVID-19 patients.

COVID-19 Critical Illness: A Data-Driven Review.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges in critical care medicine, including extreme demand for intensive care unit (ICU) resources and rapidly evolving understanding of a novel disease. Up to one-third of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 experience critical illness. The most common form of organ failure in COVID-19 critical illness is acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, which clinically presents as acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in three-quarters of ICU patients. Noninvasive respiratory support modalities are being used with increasing frequency given their potential to reduce the need for intubation. Determining optimal patient selection for and timing of intubation remains a challenge. Management of mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 largely mirrors that of non-COVID-19 ARDS. Organ failure is common and portends a poor prognosis. Mortality rates have improved over the course of the pandemic, likely owing to increasing disease familiarity, data-driven pharmacologics, and improved adherence to evidence-based critical care.

Perceived Hospital Stress, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Activity, and Care Process Temporal Variance During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic threatened standard hospital operations. We sought to understand how this stress was perceived and manifested within individual hospitals and in relation to local viral activity. DESIGN: Prospective weekly hospital stress survey, November 2020-June 2022. SETTING: Society of Critical Care Medicine's Discovery Severe Acute Respiratory Infection-Preparedness multicenter cohort study. SUBJECTS: Thirteen hospitals across seven U.S. health systems. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We analyzed 839 hospital-weeks of data over 85 pandemic weeks and five viral surges. Perceived overall hospital, ICU, and emergency department (ED) stress due to severe acute respiratory infection patients during the pandemic were reported by a mean of 43% ( sd , 36%), 32% (30%), and 14% (22%) of hospitals per week, respectively, and perceived care deviations in a mean of 36% (33%). Overall hospital stress was highly correlated with ICU stress (ρ = 0.82; p < 0.0001) but only moderately correlated with ED stress (ρ = 0.52; p < 0.0001). A county increase in 10 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 cases per 100,000 residents was associated with an increase in the odds of overall hospital, ICU, and ED stress by 9% (95% CI, 5-12%), 7% (3-10%), and 4% (2-6%), respectively. During the Delta variant surge, overall hospital stress persisted for a median of 11.5 weeks (interquartile range, 9-14 wk) after local case peak. ICU stress had a similar pattern of resolution (median 11 wk [6-14 wk] after local case peak; p = 0.59) while the resolution of ED stress (median 6 wk [5-6 wk] after local case peak; p = 0.003) was earlier. There was a similar but attenuated pattern during the Omicron BA.1 subvariant surge. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, perceived care deviations were common and potentially avoidable patient harm was rare. Perceived hospital stress persisted for weeks after surges peaked.

Severe Acute Respiratory Infection-Preparedness: Protocol for a Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study of Viral Respiratory Infections.

Respiratory virus infections cause significant morbidity and mortality ranging from mild uncomplicated acute respiratory illness to severe complications, such as acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiple organ failure, and death during epidemics and pandemics. We present a protocol to systematically study patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI), including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, due to respiratory viral pathogens to evaluate the natural history, prognostic biomarkers, and characteristics, including hospital stress, associated with clinical outcomes and severity. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Multicenter cohort of patients admitted to an acute care ward or ICU from at least 15 hospitals representing diverse geographic regions across the United States. PATIENTS: Patients with SARI caused by infection with respiratory viruses that can cause outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Measurements include patient demographics, signs, symptoms, and medications; microbiology, imaging, and associated tests; mechanical ventilation, hospital procedures, and other interventions; and clinical outcomes and hospital stress, with specimens collected on days 0, 3, and 7-14 after enrollment and at discharge. The primary outcome measure is the number of consecutive days alive and free of mechanical ventilation (VFD) in the first 30 days after hospital admission. Important secondary outcomes include organ failure-free days before acute kidney injury, shock, hepatic failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation, 28-day mortality, adaptive immunity, as well as immunologic and microbiologic outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: SARI-Preparedness is a multicenter study under the collaboration of the Society of Critical Care Medicine Discovery, Resilience Intelligence Network, and National Emerging Special Pathogen Training and Education Center, which seeks to improve understanding of prognostic factors associated with worse outcomes and increased resource utilization. This can lead to interventions to mitigate the clinical impact of respiratory virus infections associated with SARI.

A Multicenter Evaluation of the Seraph 100 Microbind Affinity Blood Filter for the Treatment of Severe COVID-19.

The Seraph100 Microbind Affinity Blood Filter (Seraph 100) (ExThera Medical, Martinez, CA) is an extracorporeal therapy that can remove pathogens from blood, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The aim of this study was to evaluate safety and efficacy of Seraph 100 treatment for COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Nine participating ICUs. PATIENTS: COVID-19 patients treated with Seraph 100 (n = 53) and control patients matched by study site (n = 53). INTERVENTION: Treatment with Seraph 100. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: At baseline, there were no differences between the groups in terms of sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, and need for mechanical ventilation. However, patients in the Seraph 100 group were younger (median age, 54 yr; interquartile range [IQR], 41-65) compared with controls (median age, 64 yr; IQR, 56-69; p = 0.009). Charlson comorbidity index scores were lower in the Seraph 100 group (2; IQR, 0-3) compared with the control group (3; IQR, 2-4; p = 0.006). Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores were also lower in Seraph 100 subjects (12; IQR, 9-17) compared with controls (16; IQR, 12-21; p = 0.011). The Seraph 100 group had higher vasopressor-free days with an incidence rate ratio of 1.30 on univariate analysis. This difference was not significant after adjustment. Seraph 100-treated subjects were less likely to die compared with controls (32.1% vs 64.2%; p = 0.001), a difference that remained significant after adjustment. However, no difference in mortality was observed in a post hoc analysis utilizing an external control group. In the full cohort of 86 treated patients, there were 177 total treatments, in which only three serious adverse events were recorded. CONCLUSIONS: Although this study did not demonstrate consistently significant clinical benefit across all endpoints and comparisons, the findings suggest that broad spectrum, pathogen agnostic, blood purification can be safely deployed to meet new pathogen threats while awaiting targeted therapies and vaccines.

Multisystem Inflammation and Organ Dysfunction After BNT162b2 Messenger RNA Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has to date granted approval or emergency use authorization to three vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and coronavirus disease 2019. In clinical trials and real-use observational studies, the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 messenger RNA coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine, as well as the Moderna mRNA-1273 messenger RNA coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine, have demonstrated high efficacy and few adverse events. CASE SUMMARY: A 20-year-old male college student in good health developed tinnitus and hematuria shortly after vaccination and progressed swiftly to a syndrome of: systemic inflammation; acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis; acute, bilateral, complete sensorineural hearing loss; radiographic evidence of acute multifocal ischemic strokes; pericardial effusion complicated by tamponade physiology requiring pericardial evacuation; pleural effusions requiring evacuation; and systemic capillary leak. An extensive clinical and research investigation, including cytokine analysis, whole blood cytometry by time of flight, and whole exome sequencing, did not reveal a definitive explanatory mechanism. CONCLUSION: While the overall safety profile of the BNT162b2 coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine remains excellent for the general population, rare serious events have been reported. In this report, we describe a case of multisystem inflammation and organ dysfunction of unknown mechanism beginning shortly after administration of the first dose of BNT162b2 coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine in a previously healthy recipient.

The impact of resource limitations on care delivery and outcomes: routine variation, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, and persistent shortage.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Resource limitation, or capacity strain, has been associated with changes in care delivery, and in some cases, poorer outcomes among critically ill patients. This may result from normal variation in strain on available resources, chronic strain in persistently under-resourced settings, and less commonly because of acute surges in demand, as seen during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent studies confirmed existing evidence that high ICU strain is associated with ICU triage decisions, and that ICU strain may be associated with ICU patient mortality. Studies also demonstrated earlier discharge of ICU patients during high strain, suggesting that strain may promote patient flow efficiency. Several studies of strain resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic provided support for the concept of adaptability - that the surge not only caused detrimental strain but also provided experience with a novel disease entity such that outcomes improved over time. Chronically resource-limited settings faced even more challenging circumstances because of acute-on-chronic strain during the pandemic. SUMMARY: The interaction between resource limitation and care delivery and outcomes is complex and incompletely understood. The COVID-19 pandemic provides a learning opportunity for strain response during both pandemic and nonpandemic times.

Characteristics, Outcomes, and Trends of Patients With COVID-19-Related Critical Illness at a Learning Health System in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to surge in the United States and globally. OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology of COVID-19-related critical illness, including trends in outcomes and care delivery. DESIGN: Single-health system, multihospital retrospective cohort study. SETTING: 5 hospitals within the University of Pennsylvania Health System. PATIENTS: Adults with COVID-19-related critical illness who were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with acute respiratory failure or shock during the initial surge of the pandemic. MEASUREMENTS: The primary exposure for outcomes and care delivery trend analyses was longitudinal time during the pandemic. The primary outcome was all-cause 28-day in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were all-cause death at any time, receipt of mechanical ventilation (MV), and readmissions. RESULTS: Among 468 patients with COVID-19-related critical illness, 319 (68.2%) were treated with MV and 121 (25.9%) with vasopressors. Outcomes were notable for an all-cause 28-day in-hospital mortality rate of 29.9%, a median ICU stay of 8 days (interquartile range [IQR], 3 to 17 days), a median hospital stay of 13 days (IQR, 7 to 25 days), and an all-cause 30-day readmission rate (among nonhospice survivors) of 10.8%. Mortality decreased over time, from 43.5% (95% CI, 31.3% to 53.8%) to 19.2% (CI, 11.6% to 26.7%) between the first and last 15-day periods in the core adjusted model, whereas patient acuity and other factors did not change. LIMITATIONS: Single-health system study; use of, or highly dynamic trends in, other clinical interventions were not evaluated, nor were complications. CONCLUSION: Among patients with COVID-19-related critical illness admitted to ICUs of a learning health system in the United States, mortality seemed to decrease over time despite stable patient characteristics. Further studies are necessary to confirm this result and to investigate causal mechanisms. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Impact of COVID-19 on inpatient clinical emergencies: A single-center experience.

AIM: Determine changes in rapid response team (RRT) activations and describe institutional adaptations made during a surge in hospitalizations for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: Using prospectively collected data, we compared characteristics of RRT calls at our academic hospital from March 7 through May 31, 2020 (COVID-19 era) versus those from January 1 through March 6, 2020 (pre-COVID-19 era). We used negative binomial regression to test differences in RRT activation rates normalized to floor (non-ICU) inpatient census between pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 eras, including the sub-era of rapid COVID-19 census surge and plateau (March 28 through May 2, 2020). RESULTS: RRT activations for respiratory distress rose substantially during the rapid COVID-19 surge and plateau (2.38 (95% CI 1.39-3.36) activations per 1000 floor patient-days v. 1.27 (0.82-1.71) during the pre-COVID-19 era; p = 0.02); all-cause RRT rates were not significantly different (5.40 (95% CI 3.94-6.85) v. 4.83 (3.86-5.80) activations per 1000 floor patient-days, respectively; p = 0.52). Throughout the COVID-19 era, respiratory distress accounted for a higher percentage of RRT activations in COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 patients (57% vs. 28%, respectively; p = 0.001). During the surge, we adapted RRT guidelines to reduce in-room personnel and standardize personal protective equipment based on COVID-19 status and risk to providers, created decision-support pathways for respiratory emergencies that accounted for COVID-19 status uncertainty, and expanded critical care consultative support to floor teams. CONCLUSION: Increased frequency and complexity of RRT activations for respiratory distress during the COVID-19 surge prompted the creation of clinical tools and strategies that could be applied to other hospitals.

National Psoriasis Foundation COVID-19 Task Force guidance for management of psoriatic disease during the pandemic: Version 2-Advances in psoriatic disease management, COVID-19 vaccines, and COVID-19 treatments.

OBJECTIVE: To update guidance regarding the management of psoriatic disease during the COVID-19 pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: The task force (TF) includes 18 physician voting members with expertise in dermatology, rheumatology, epidemiology, infectious diseases, and critical care. The TF was supplemented by nonvoting members, which included fellows and National Psoriasis Foundation staff. Clinical questions relevant to the psoriatic disease community were informed by inquiries received by the National Psoriasis Foundation. A Delphi process was conducted. RESULTS: The TF updated evidence for the original 22 statements and added 5 new recommendations. The average of the votes was within the category of agreement for all statements, 13 with high consensus and 14 with moderate consensus. LIMITATIONS: The evidence behind many guidance statements is variable in quality and/or quantity. CONCLUSIONS: These statements provide guidance for the treatment of patients with psoriatic disease on topics including how the disease and its treatments affect COVID-19 risk, how medical care can be optimized during the pandemic, what patients should do to lower their risk of getting infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (including novel vaccination), and what they should do if they develop COVID-19. The guidance is a living document that is continuously updated by the TF as data emerge.

National Psoriasis Foundation COVID-19 Task Force Guidance for Management of Psoriatic Disease During the Pandemic: Version 1.

OBJECTIVE: To provide guidance about management of psoriatic disease during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: A task force (TF) of 18 physician voting members with expertise in dermatology, rheumatology, epidemiology, infectious diseases, and critical care was convened. The TF was supplemented by nonvoting members, which included fellows and National Psoriasis Foundation (NPF) staff. Clinical questions relevant to the psoriatic disease community were informed by questions received by the NPF. A Delphi process was conducted. RESULTS: The TF approved 22 guidance statements. The average of the votes was within the category of agreement for all statements. All guidance statements proposed were recommended, 9 with high consensus and 13 with moderate consensus. LIMITATIONS: The evidence behind many guidance statements is limited in quality. CONCLUSION: These statements provide guidance for the management of patients with psoriatic disease on topics ranging from how the disease and its treatments impact COVID-19 risk and outcome, how medical care can be optimized during the pandemic, what patients should do to lower their risk of getting infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and what they should do if they develop COVID-19. The guidance is intended to be a living document that will be updated by the TF as data emerge.

Locally Informed Simulation to Predict Hospital Capacity Needs During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenges hospital leaders to make time-sensitive, critical decisions about clinical operations and resource allocations. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the timing of surges in clinical demand and the best- and worst-case scenarios of local COVID-19-induced strain on hospital capacity, and thus inform clinical operations and staffing demands and identify when hospital capacity would be saturated. DESIGN: Monte Carlo simulation instantiation of a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) model with a 1-day cycle. SETTING: 3 hospitals in an academic health system. PATIENTS: All people living in the greater Philadelphia region. MEASUREMENTS: The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model (CHIME) (http://penn-chime.phl.io) SIR model was used to estimate the time from 23 March 2020 until hospital capacity would probably be exceeded, and the intensity of the surge, including for intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ventilators. RESULTS: Using patients with COVID-19 alone, CHIME estimated that it would be 31 to 53 days before demand exceeds existing hospital capacity. In best- and worst-case scenarios of surges in the number of patients with COVID-19, the needed total capacity for hospital beds would reach 3131 to 12 650 across the 3 hospitals, including 338 to 1608 ICU beds and 118 to 599 ventilators. LIMITATIONS: Model parameters were taken directly or derived from published data across heterogeneous populations and practice environments and from the health system's historical data. CHIME does not incorporate more transition states to model infection severity, social networks to model transmission dynamics, or geographic information to account for spatial patterns of human interaction. CONCLUSION: Publicly available and designed for hospital operations leaders, this modeling tool can inform preparations for capacity strain during the early days of a pandemic. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: University of Pennsylvania Health System and the Palliative and Advanced Illness Research Center.

A Conceptual and Adaptable Approach to Hospital Preparedness for Acute Surge Events Due to Emerging Infectious Diseases

At the time this article was written, the World Health Organization had declared a global pandemic due to the novel coronavirus disease 2019, the first pandemic since 2009 H1N1 influenza A. Emerging respiratory pathogens are a common trigger of acute surge events-the extreme end of the healthcare capacity strain spectrum in which there is a dramatic increase in care demands and/or decreases in care resources that trigger deviations from normal care delivery processes, reliance on contingencies and external resources, and, in the most extreme cases, nonroutine decisions about resource allocation. This article provides as follows: 1) a conceptual introduction and approach to healthcare capacity strain including the etiologies of patient volume, patient acuity, special patient care demands, and resource reduction;2) a framework for considering key resources during an acute surge event-the "four Ss" of preparedness: space (beds), staff (clinicians and operations), stuff (physical equipment), and system (coordination);and 3) an adaptable approach to and discussion of the most common domains that should be addressed during preparation for and response to acute surge events, with an eye toward combating novel respiratory viral pathogens.